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Definition: prediction market


Betting on virtually any event that has two or more outcomes. One of the first online prediction venues was the Hollywood Stock Exchange in 1996, which used simulated money to buy and sell predictions for Oscar-winning movies, actors and directors.

Although online sports gambling with real money has been very popular also starting in the mid-1990s, today, there are apps for predicting just about any outcome that the public desires, including politics, weather, stock market and even what famous personalities might post about something. Kalshi and Polymarket are two of he largest prediction platforms. See online gambling.




A Polymarket Bet
Starting in 2020, Polymarket offers betting on hundreds of outcomes in a dozen categories, including sports, politics, finance and tech. It even allows betting on how many times the president will say certain words in the next cabinet meeting. The above example let people decide Time's Person of the Year for 2025. Clicking Artificial Intelligence (top) displayed the winning amount based on how much is wagered, which in this case was $10 to $100 (bottom). (Image courtesy of Polymarket.)





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